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AI
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Education
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Medicine
Physics & Math
Public Health
Space
All marketsAIBig Tech & BusinessEducationEnergyMedicinePhysics & MathPublic HealthSpace

Tech & Science

SPACE

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Aug 1 @ 9:50AM

Before Jan 20, 2029
5.56x18%
Before 2028
7.14x14%
Before 2027
20.00x5%
Before December
33.33x3%
$1.6M vol8 markets
AI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Dec 31 @ 10:00AM

Claude
1.39x72%
ChatGPT
8.33x12%
Gemini
11.11x9%
Grok
33.33x3%
$2.3M vol8 markets
PUBLIC HEALTH

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

Dec 31 @ 11:59PM

In Dec 31, 2026
50.00x2%
$39.0k vol1 market
AI

When will Anthropic release Mythos?

Jul 31 @ 11:15PM

Before Jan 1, 2027
12.50x8%
Before Sep 1, 2026
20.00x5%
Before Nov 1, 2026
25.00x4%
Before Dec 1, 2026
25.00x4%
$52.6k vol6 markets
AI

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Dec 31 @ 10:00AM

Anthropic
1.41x71%
OpenAI
6.67x15%
xAI
16.67x6%
Alibaba
100.00x1%
$235.9k vol9 markets
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Measles cases in 2026?

Dec 31 @ 11:59PM

Above 3000
1.01x99%
Above 4000
1.03x97%
Above 6000
2.00x50%
Above 8000
6.67x15%
$643.2k vol5 markets
ENERGY

US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

Dec 31 @ 11:59PM

Grants license
16.67x6%
$50.8k vol1 market
AI

Best AI in Sep 2026?

Sep 30 @ 10:00AM

Claude
1.01x99%
Gemini
50.00x2%
ChatGPT
100.00x1%
Grok
100.00x1%
$209.2k vol7 markets
SPACE

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

Jan 1 @ 10:00AM

Above 120
1.03x97%
Above 140
1.61x62%
Above 145
5.00x20%
Above 150
11.11x9%
$120.2k vol10 markets
SPACE

How many launches will SpaceX have in September?

Oct 1 @ 10:00AM

Above 7
1.37x73%
Above 8
50.00x2%
Above 9
50.00x2%
Above 10
100.00x1%
$23.2k vol12 markets
SPACE

NASA lands on the moon?

Dec 31 @ 11:59PM

Before 2030
2.17x46%
Before 2029
3.33x30%
Before 2028
50.00x2%
Before 2027
100.00x1%
$22.4k vol4 markets
TRUMP

Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?

Dec 31 @ 11:59PM

Any psychedelic substance for medical use
3.45x29%
$113.3k vol1 market
AI

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

Jan 1 @ 10:00AM

OpenAI
4.35x23%
Meta
6.67x15%
xAI
10.00x10%
Nvidia
16.67x6%
$55.0k vol12 markets
BIG TECH & BUSINESS

Tesla Optimus released this year?

Dec 30 @ 11:59PM

Before 2027
12.50x8%
$30.4k vol1 market
PUBLIC HEALTH

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

Dec 31 @ 11:59PM

Somalia
10.00x10%
Burundi
3.45x29%
Republic of the Congo
5.00x20%
South Sudan
3.57x28%
$58.4k vol16 markets
BIG TECH & BUSINESS

Where will Waymo operate in 2026?

Dec 31 @ 10:00AM

Tampa, FL
1.25x80%
San Diego, CA
1.15x87%
Las Vegas, NV
1.19x84%
Denver, CO
1.25x80%
$185.8k vol21 markets
SPACE

SpaceX Starship 14th launch?

Aug 20 @ 11:59PM

Before Oct 16, 2026
1.11x90%
Before Oct 1, 2026
1.19x84%
Before Sep 30, 2026
1.47x68%
Before Sep 29, 2026
1.59x63%
$44.4k vol8 markets
AI

Top AI model in September?

Sep 30 @ 10:00AM

claude-fable-5.1-max
3.85x26%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
50.00x2%
claude-opus-5-high
50.00x2%
claude-opus-4-7
100.00x1%
$4.8k vol6 markets
AI

Best AI this week

Sep 28 @ 10:00AM

Claude
1.03x97%
Gemini
100.00x1%
ChatGPT
33.33x3%
Grok
100.00x1%
$28.1k vol9 markets
SPACE

When will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?

Aug 1 @ 9:51AM

Before Apr 2027
1.75x57%
Before Mar 2027
2.70x37%
Before Feb 2027
3.45x29%
Before 2027
6.67x15%
$7.0k vol9 markets
AI

AI capability growth this year?

Jan 1 @ 10:00AM

At least 1520 score
1.89x53%
At least 1530 score
5.00x20%
At least 1540 score
4.76x21%
At least 1550 score
7.14x14%
$60.4k vol8 markets
AI

Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?

Jan 1 @ 10:00AM

Before 2027
4.17x24%
$40.3k vol1 market
SPACE

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

Jan 1 @ 10:00AM

United States
1.92x52%
China
3.23x31%
India
โ€”0%
Russia
โ€”0%
$58.2k vol5 markets
BIG TECH & BUSINESS

What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?

Jan 1 @ 10:00AM

Clip-on device for clothing
8.33x12%
Glasses
9.09x11%
Watch
16.67x6%
Earbuds/Headphones
10.00x10%
$13.2k vol10 markets
PUBLIC HEALTH

How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

Jan 1 @ 9:59AM

Above 0
4.35x23%
Above 1
2.78x36%
Above 3
25.00x4%
Above 2
8.33x12%
$19.3k vol6 markets
AI

Anthropic market share this week

Sep 27 @ 11:59PM

Above 2.3%
1.02x98%
Above 2.5%
1.06x94%
Above 2.6%
1.16x86%
Above 2.7%
1.59x63%
$60.0k vol7 markets
AI

Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Jan 1 @ 10:00AM

Claude
5.88x17%
ChatGPT
14.29x7%
Grok
20.00x5%
Other
33.33x3%
$13.9k vol8 markets
AI

Tencent market share this week

Sep 27 @ 11:59PM

Above 3.5%
5.88x17%
Above 4.9%
20.00x5%
Above 5.7%
33.33x3%
Above 5.9%
10.00x10%
$8.4k vol9 markets
AI

Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?

Jan 1 @ 10:00AM

Before 2027
8.33x12%
$16.2k vol1 market
AI

Google market share this week

Sep 27 @ 11:59PM

Above 16.7%
1.01x99%
Above 17.5%
1.01x99%
Above 18.1%
1.01x99%
Above 18.3%
1.01x99%
$109.0k vol9 markets
AI

Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai)

Sep 30 @ 10:00AM

Claude
1.04x96%
ChatGPT
14.29x7%
Qwen
25.00x4%
Grok
50.00x2%
$30.2k vol9 markets
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

When will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida?

Jul 31 @ 11:59PM

Before 2027
3.13x32%
Before Aug 1, 2026
50.00x2%
Before Oct 1, 2026
50.00x2%
$10.7k vol3 markets
BIG TECH & BUSINESS

Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?

Jan 1 @ 10:00AM

Before 2030
1.56x64%
$60.4k vol1 market
BIG TECH & BUSINESS

Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?

Jan 1 @ 10:00AM

Before 2030
4.55x22%
$19.7k vol1 market
MEDICINE

When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?

Aug 31 @ 11:59PM

Before 2027
3.23x31%
Before November
8.33x12%
Before September
50.00x2%
$7.5k vol3 markets
AI

DeepSeek market share this week

Sep 27 @ 11:59PM

Above 23.0%
1.03x97%
Above 24.1%
1.11x90%
Above 24.9%
1.35x74%
Above 25.2%
2.22x45%
$35.4k vol9 markets
AI

Price of NVIDIA B200 compute by Dec 31, 2026?

Jul 19 @ 9:24AM

Above $6.47
1.01x99%
Above $6.77
1.01x99%
Above $6.17
1.02x98%
Above $7.07
1.05x95%
$74.5k vol27 markets
AI

Will Meta release Llama 5 this year?

Jan 1 @ 10:00AM

Before 2027
12.50x8%
$6.4k vol1 market
AI

Xiaomi market share this week

Sep 27 @ 11:59PM

Above 1.8%
1.09x92%
Above 1.9%
1.19x84%
Above 2.1%
1.49x67%
Above 2.5%
8.33x12%
$36.3k vol6 markets
AI

Price of NVIDIA H200 compute by Dec 31, 2026?

Jul 27 @ 5:16PM

Above $5.49
1.01x99%
Above $5.19
1.03x97%
Above $5.79
1.12x89%
Above $6.09
1.35x74%
$62.4k vol6 markets
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Number of data centers in Pennsylvania this year?

Jan 7 @ 10:00AM

At least 180
1.22x82%
At least 185
1.56x64%
At least 190
1.75x57%
At least 200
2.94x34%
$40.4k vol6 markets
AI

Qwen market share this week

Sep 27 @ 11:59PM

Above 5.8%
1.06x94%
Above 6.2%
1.67x60%
Above 6.5%
2.86x35%
Above 6.6%
3.85x26%
$18.9k vol9 markets
PUBLIC HEALTH

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

Jan 1 @ 10:00AM

In Dec 31, 2026
16.67x6%
$3.8k vol1 market
BIG TECH & BUSINESS

New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?

Dec 31 @ 11:59PM

New York Times wins
1.54x65%
$39.5k vol1 market
AI

OpenAI market share this week

Sep 27 @ 11:59PM

Above 11.1%
1.01x99%
Above 14.0%
1.01x99%
Above 15.8%
1.01x99%
Above 16.4%
1.02x98%
$36.9k vol9 markets
AI

When will Google release Gemini 4?

Sep 15 @ 11:59PM

Before Dec 1, 2026
1.09x92%
Before Jan 1, 2027
1.09x92%
Before Oct 16, 2026
2.00x50%
Before Nov 15, 2026
1.06x94%
$16.1k vol8 markets
AI

When will Anthropic release Opus 6?

Aug 31 @ 11:59PM

Before Nov 1, 2026
7.14x14%
Before Sep 1, 2026
25.00x4%
Before Oct 1, 2026
33.33x3%
Before Sep 16, 2026
100.00x1%
$4.6k vol5 markets
SPACE

Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?

Jan 1 @ 10:00AM

Before 2028
2.00x50%
$28.6k vol1 market
SPACE

Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?

Jan 1 @ 10:00AM

Before 2035
2.22x45%
$23.9k vol1 market
AI

Top Coding AI this month (DeepSWE)

Sep 30 @ 10:00AM

Claude
1.56x64%
ChatGPT
7.14x14%
Gemini
14.29x7%
Grok
100.00x1%
$8.5k vol8 markets
PHYSICS & MATH

When will nuclear fusion be achieved?

Dec 31 @ 11:59PM

Before 2035
1.96x51%
Before 2040
1.85x54%
Before 2030
3.45x29%
$18.4k vol3 markets
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?

Jan 1 @ 10:00AM

5
1.89x53%
4
2.33x43%
3
3.70x27%
6
20.00x5%
$13.4k vol10 markets
AI

When will xAI release Grok 5?

Aug 31 @ 11:59PM

Before 2027
2.44x41%
Before November
10.00x10%
Before September
25.00x4%
Before December
4.35x23%
$6.9k vol5 markets
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Will Apple release a Macbook with cellular connectivity before 2027?

Jan 1 @ 10:00AM

Before 2027
25.00x4%
$1.8k vol1 market
AI

Top Chinese AI Company week of September 21st

Sep 28 @ 10:00AM

Alibaba
1.02x98%
Moonshot
50.00x2%
Z.ai
50.00x2%
Baidu
100.00x1%
$5.8k vol10 markets
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Number of US data centers in 2026?

Jul 23 @ 4:47PM

At least 4,600
1.02x98%
At least 4,700
1.02x98%
At least 4,800
1.04x96%
At least 5,300
1.92x52%
$39.9k vol15 markets
PUBLIC HEALTH

Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?

Jan 1 @ 9:59AM

Above 14k
1.01x99%
Above 18k
1.01x99%
Above 8k
1.02x98%
Above 4k
1.01x99%
$38.5k vol15 markets
BIG TECH & BUSINESS

Which states will robotaxi be offered to in 2026?

Jul 22 @ 4:25PM

Florida
1.11x90%
Nevada
1.25x80%
Arizona
1.85x54%
Georgia
2.78x36%
$19.9k vol5 markets
PRODUCT LAUNCHES

Will the FDA approve retatrutide?

Dec 31 @ 11:59PM

Before Jan 1, 2029
1.01x99%
Before Jan 1, 2028
1.12x89%
Before Jul 1, 2028
1.15x87%
Before Jul 1, 2027
2.08x48%
$8.8k vol5 markets
AI

Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score

Jan 1 @ 10:00AM

above 1495
1.32x76%
above 1500
1.85x54%
above 1490
1.15x87%
above 1505
2.38x42%
$24.3k vol7 markets